Final 3 and Vote Assumptions

 (For the record, I haven't seen ANY spoilers. The following comments are all my assumptions.)

After watching a web promo for next weeks episode, I came up with a theory and I figured I wanted to draw it all out on here. This is assuming that Boston Rob, Natalie, and Phillip make final 3. It is possible that it won't go that way, but at the moment it's likely.

On the promo, it had Natalie saying to Rob that "She thinks it's us two". I assume that they are talking about Ashley, since Rob had said in another part of the interview that "[Ashley] was dangerous". That is what sparked my theory here. I feel that if Natalie goes with this and helps take out Ashley, then Ashley could be extremely bitter and throw her vote elsewhere. Meaning Rob here. I know that at the moment, Natalie and Ashley are tight, but once someone is blindsided, everything can change. Plus, we all know that Ashley seems to be a blind follower to Rob, which puts more points into my theory here. I know it'd be easy for Natalie to blame it on Rob, but I'm not sure how likely it is for her to put that out there at the final tribal council. I just don't know if she is able to be persuasive. And I know that Rob is, and has probably thought out exactly what he is going to say. He has tremendous charm, and I think is really capable to sway jury votes. So as it stands, the votes are as follows:

Ashley: Boston Rob

Now moving on to those actually on the jury at the moment. I think that David is a shoo-in for a Rob vote, simply based on his behaviour for the past couple of weeks. He seems like he admires the moves that Rob has made, even going so far as to say "That was genius, that's what that was" when Rob flushed Ralph's idol and voted out Matt for a second time. So for that reason the votes now stand at:

Ashley: Boston Rob
David: Boston Rob

After this, it gets a little tricky. The remaining jury members, both actual and suppose, are: Julie, Steve, Ralph, Mike, Matt, Andrea, and Grant. It's hard to judge these ones, but I don't see anyone voting for Phillip, except for Andrea based on her confessional. That however, I find to be really weak, and will probably change.

So, looking at the former Zapatera members...I can see any one of them voting for Boston Rob. More so Julie than any of the others. We know she doesn't like Phillip, and I've also gotten the impression that she doesn't like the girls doing nothing (Natalie). So I would put her as a possible Rob vote.

Ashley: Boston Rob
David: Boston Rob
Julie: Boston Rob

So we have Steve, Ralph, and Mike left for Zapatera...I don't believe that any of these guys will vote for Phillip, especially Steve. I also don't feel that Steve would vote for Natalie, unless she makes a really convincing speech. She just hasn't done a whole lot, and I think Steve is someone who puts value on hard work. Therefore:


Ashley: Boston Rob
David: Boston Rob
Julie: Boston Rob
Steve: Boston Rob

I don't see Matt voting for any of them...but probably more so Boston Rob. This one is extremely tentative but I would say that Matt would throw a vote Natalie's way. This could be wrong, and he could vote Rob, but I'm not too sure based on the game so far. Rob could make a good argument though. After all, he got Matt back once, he COULD do it again. As it stands though, I'm going to put him under Natalie.


Ashley: Boston Rob
David: Boston Rob
Julie: Boston Rob
Steve: Boston Rob
Matt: Natalie

Now we just have Ralph, Mike, Andrea, and Grant left on the jury. These ones are swing votes really. I mean, Andrea values work, and she was extremely annoyed with Natalie and Ashley early on for not doing anything. But she also knows that Boston Rob voted her out. What she doesn't know is that everyone else agreed with him on that; that she needed to go out. That might've been, and probably was, just to agree with Rob, at least on the parts of Phillip, Natalie, and Ashley. But Grant, no. I think that Grant is helping Rob quite a bit. In the previews for next week, he is gunning for Ashley. What might occur to Rob though, is that he needs to get rid of Grant because of his strength and now the strategy he is showing. But that's not what I'm talking about. If I am right in my calculations so far, all Boston Rob needs is ONE more vote. Right now, he is one vote away from having the million dollars. I think that the people most likely to vote for Boston Rob are the former Zapatera members. Sure he voted them out, but he was keeping his tribe, his alliance, together for as long as he could. He didn't go off on them like Phillip, and it's not like he didn't do anything (or not a lot) around camp, like Natalie. The Zapatera members strike me as those most likely to vote based on gameplay. They got Russell out because they knew that they would get burned. I think they may scold the other Ometepe's for not doing the same thing, and that is why I think that they may vote for Boston Rob... so if I am right here:


Ashley: Boston Rob
David: Boston Rob
Julie: Boston Rob
Steve: Boston Rob
Matt: Natalie
Ralph: Boston Rob
Mike: Boston Rob

Even if Ashley does vote for Natalie and it turns out to be this:

Ashley: Natalie
David: Boston Rob
Julie: Boston Rob
Steve: Boston Rob
Matt: Natalie
Ralph: Boston Rob
Mike: Boston Rob

There are still two more votes (Andrea and Grant)...two more people that could very well both vote for Rob, or only one voting for Rob. Also, if Andrea DOES vote for Phillip (based on her confessional on Wednesday night)...Rob's still won, no matter what Grant does.


Ashley: Natalie
David: Boston Rob
Julie: Boston Rob
Steve: Boston Rob
Matt: Natalie
Ralph: Boston Rob
Mike: Boston Rob
Andrea: Phillip

In fact...Rob has it won with the Zapatera votes only. 5 former Zapatera members are on the jury. Only 4 Ometepe members... Do the math folks, it's not THAT farfetched for Boston Rob to win. Especially since he is pretty charming/persuasive. How else could he have gotten his tribe to do what they did? I also expect that he has practiced a speech, thought about past seasons. He has DEFINITELY learned from his mistakes, and we can expect something great from him. Just remember: it is not that farfetched. Listen to when he talks.

Still-excited-for-the-finale,
Jessa

Outwit. Outplay. Outlast.

It was Survivor Night tonight and it was pretty intense. Here's a little rundown before I get into other things.

It was a family visit episode tonight. During the duel, Mike won, then Matt and Ralph followed, sending Steve out of the game. Mike had a choice to make after that. He could either take a visit from his mom, give visits to the other RI guys, or give visits to the remaining people on Murlonio. He choose to give up his visit and give them to the Murlonio members. At the immunity challenge, it was a huuuuge staircase where they had to untie groups of puzzle pieces to put together their staircase. They could only bring up one piece at a time so they had to memorize the step ahead of them so they didn't just choose randomly and lose time. It was really Andrea, Rob, and Grant who were leading, it switched between the three for most of the challenge. Rob had to literally carry himself up with his planks near the end, he was so exhausted. All of them were actually. In the end, Rob won immunity. The talk at camp was for Andrea or Phillip to go home. Phillip was being his usual self and annoying everybody, and taking apart the roof of the shelter where the Zapatera people slept. In the end though, Andrea was blindsided and sent to Redemption. One thing I noticed is how Andrea said she was a little bitter at everyone aside from Phillip, because they said that they were all voting for him. Well obviously he couldn't tell her that he was voting for himself, AND he voted for her, so I think she really needs to take a look at that. 

I think that it was the right decision to send Andrea, however I would be wary of Grant. He could make an Immunity run and screw up Rob's plans, so if I were Rob, I would take out Grant ASAP. Splitting the girls up would be another route as well, since it could turn into a Jenna/Heidi situation where neither one will vote the other off.

One thing I want to cover is a bit about the family section. Rob's visit, while I knew it wasn't going to be Amber as she was about 6 months pregnant at the time, was not who I was expecting. I was sure that his brother was going to come again. When I think about it now though, Rob probably planned it in case they had to compete again. Maybe because his brother came the last time, there would be a target on them? I'm not sure. It's also likely that the producers wanted someone else to come, and as they couldn't have Amber, a choice had to be made. Either way, it worked out. He got to see his sister, and he got a t-shirt that had Amber's picture and his firstborn daughter (pregnant with number 2). I think that gave him a lot of drive during the immunity challenge. He tried as hard as he possibly could, and was delirious near the end and needed help to stand up.

Something I'm wondering, is when exactly it's Rob's absolute last chance to play the hidden immunity idol. I don't know whether it'll be during the upcoming episode, or if it'll be sometime during the finale. IF it's during the finale, I see the last shot as being NO later than in the final 4 situation. Could be earlier, but there is no way he could use it during the last tribal council. I'm trying to tweet Jeff Probst about this, because I am unclear on this situation at the moment. I'm basically trying to dissect everything. I realize that Canadians are not allowed to play this game, because they only have rights for the show in the US (although I think they could easily get Canada into this mix...and they SHOULD), but I enjoy strategizing at home. I have a whole strategy all worked out for the game. I only wish I would get the shot to play. Yes, I do have some ideas from past players, but I have quite a few ideas of my own thrown into the mix. I know it's easy to say this when I'm not playing, but I honestly think that the strategy I have in mind could really get me far in the game; and get me a great shot at winning the whole thing.

On the subject of a winner, I have a few ideas. If Rob makes it into the finals, I honestly feel that he should win. He's playing the best that he's ever played before. His game this season is probably one of the best I've seen. The only downfall I see for him is a bitter jury. I do hope that the jury members can put things aside and look at how well he's played. Sure, he lied and voted people out, but I don't feel like he did that to completely break people down. He's doing it to get to the end and get the best possible shot at winning as he can. I think he needs to put a lot into a final speech to the jury, and I hope that he has practiced.

For Phillip...I agree with Rob in saying that he is the perfect goat to bring to the end. I realize Phillip says he is just pretending to be crazy/a villain, but that only goes so far. I think when the race card was brought up, that ended his strategy. I can see where he was coming from, but I don't feel that Steve meant to call him the n word. Sure, Steve probably could have gone about saying what he did about the rice differently, but when they got back to camp after tribal that one night, he APOLOGIZED to how he made Phillip feel. He didn't have to, but he did because even though he didn't mean it the way it came out, it was the right thing to do.

Now...Matt...I know if he makes it to the finals, he is probably going to win, and that's exactly why I don't want him there. He has not spent the time actually in the game and having to make alliances and those tough decisions. Sure, he's doing great on RI, but I still don't feel like he would be deserving of the $$$. Not as much as some of the other people anyways.
 

Ralph said one thing at the beginning of the episode that I disagreed with. He said that if any of the former Zapatera members got into the finals, they would win. I don't feel that this is true. Let's take it from if he was in there against 2 Ometepe members. Sure, he could probably get Julie, Matt and Steve's vote, but that's where I think it ends. David, in my opinion, is HIGHLY likely to vote for Rob. He's commented many times on moves that Rob has made, and I think that he truly admires those moves and thinks that they are brilliant. As for the 4 other jury members, the Ometepe group minus Matt...they could go either way. I think that it depends on how they are voted out. It seems like Andrea is a little bitter, but not overly so. I think that it is possible that she will realize that it is a game and put aside personal feelings (unless Matt gets in the final XD). From there, it depends. But the thing is, it is NOT a guaranteed win for a former Zapatera member. Final jury speeches are everything, and I think that Rob, should he make it, will give a really persuading speech. Count on it.

Excited-for-the-finale,

Jessa