(For the record, I haven't seen ANY spoilers. The following comments are all my assumptions.)
After watching a web promo for next weeks episode, I came up with a theory and I figured I wanted to draw it all out on here. This is assuming that Boston Rob, Natalie, and Phillip make final 3. It is possible that it won't go that way, but at the moment it's likely.
On the promo, it had Natalie saying to Rob that "She thinks it's us two". I assume that they are talking about Ashley, since Rob had said in another part of the interview that "[Ashley] was dangerous". That is what sparked my theory here. I feel that if Natalie goes with this and helps take out Ashley, then Ashley could be extremely bitter and throw her vote elsewhere. Meaning Rob here. I know that at the moment, Natalie and Ashley are tight, but once someone is blindsided, everything can change. Plus, we all know that Ashley seems to be a blind follower to Rob, which puts more points into my theory here. I know it'd be easy for Natalie to blame it on Rob, but I'm not sure how likely it is for her to put that out there at the final tribal council. I just don't know if she is able to be persuasive. And I know that Rob is, and has probably thought out exactly what he is going to say. He has tremendous charm, and I think is really capable to sway jury votes. So as it stands, the votes are as follows:
Ashley: Boston Rob
Now moving on to those actually on the jury at the moment. I think that David is a shoo-in for a Rob vote, simply based on his behaviour for the past couple of weeks. He seems like he admires the moves that Rob has made, even going so far as to say "That was genius, that's what that was" when Rob flushed Ralph's idol and voted out Matt for a second time. So for that reason the votes now stand at:
Ashley: Boston Rob
David: Boston Rob
After this, it gets a little tricky. The remaining jury members, both actual and suppose, are: Julie, Steve, Ralph, Mike, Matt, Andrea, and Grant. It's hard to judge these ones, but I don't see anyone voting for Phillip, except for Andrea based on her confessional. That however, I find to be really weak, and will probably change.
So, looking at the former Zapatera members...I can see any one of them voting for Boston Rob. More so Julie than any of the others. We know she doesn't like Phillip, and I've also gotten the impression that she doesn't like the girls doing nothing (Natalie). So I would put her as a possible Rob vote.
Ashley: Boston Rob
David: Boston Rob
Julie: Boston Rob
So we have Steve, Ralph, and Mike left for Zapatera...I don't believe that any of these guys will vote for Phillip, especially Steve. I also don't feel that Steve would vote for Natalie, unless she makes a really convincing speech. She just hasn't done a whole lot, and I think Steve is someone who puts value on hard work. Therefore:
Ashley: Boston Rob
David: Boston Rob
Julie: Boston Rob
Steve: Boston Rob
I don't see Matt voting for any of them...but probably more so Boston Rob. This one is extremely tentative but I would say that Matt would throw a vote Natalie's way. This could be wrong, and he could vote Rob, but I'm not too sure based on the game so far. Rob could make a good argument though. After all, he got Matt back once, he COULD do it again. As it stands though, I'm going to put him under Natalie.
Ashley: Boston Rob
David: Boston Rob
Julie: Boston Rob
Steve: Boston Rob
Matt: Natalie
Now we just have Ralph, Mike, Andrea, and Grant left on the jury. These ones are swing votes really. I mean, Andrea values work, and she was extremely annoyed with Natalie and Ashley early on for not doing anything. But she also knows that Boston Rob voted her out. What she doesn't know is that everyone else agreed with him on that; that she needed to go out. That might've been, and probably was, just to agree with Rob, at least on the parts of Phillip, Natalie, and Ashley. But Grant, no. I think that Grant is helping Rob quite a bit. In the previews for next week, he is gunning for Ashley. What might occur to Rob though, is that he needs to get rid of Grant because of his strength and now the strategy he is showing. But that's not what I'm talking about. If I am right in my calculations so far, all Boston Rob needs is ONE more vote. Right now, he is one vote away from having the million dollars. I think that the people most likely to vote for Boston Rob are the former Zapatera members. Sure he voted them out, but he was keeping his tribe, his alliance, together for as long as he could. He didn't go off on them like Phillip, and it's not like he didn't do anything (or not a lot) around camp, like Natalie. The Zapatera members strike me as those most likely to vote based on gameplay. They got Russell out because they knew that they would get burned. I think they may scold the other Ometepe's for not doing the same thing, and that is why I think that they may vote for Boston Rob... so if I am right here:
Ashley: Boston Rob
David: Boston Rob
Julie: Boston Rob
Steve: Boston Rob
Matt: Natalie
Ralph: Boston Rob
Mike: Boston Rob
Even if Ashley does vote for Natalie and it turns out to be this:
Ashley: Natalie
David: Boston Rob
Julie: Boston Rob
Steve: Boston Rob
Matt: Natalie
Ralph: Boston Rob
Mike: Boston Rob
There are still two more votes (Andrea and Grant)...two more people that could very well both vote for Rob, or only one voting for Rob. Also, if Andrea DOES vote for Phillip (based on her confessional on Wednesday night)...Rob's still won, no matter what Grant does.
Ashley: Natalie
David: Boston Rob
Julie: Boston Rob
Steve: Boston Rob
Matt: Natalie
Ralph: Boston Rob
Mike: Boston Rob
Andrea: Phillip
In fact...Rob has it won with the Zapatera votes only. 5 former Zapatera members are on the jury. Only 4 Ometepe members... Do the math folks, it's not THAT farfetched for Boston Rob to win. Especially since he is pretty charming/persuasive. How else could he have gotten his tribe to do what they did? I also expect that he has practiced a speech, thought about past seasons. He has DEFINITELY learned from his mistakes, and we can expect something great from him. Just remember: it is not that farfetched. Listen to when he talks.
Still-excited-for-the-finale,
Jessa
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